What is the Best Sports Betting System?

One of the most frequent questions people ask me is “What is the best sports betting system?” It’s a question that I am reluctant to answer. Why?

Because generally sports betting systems are not consistent.

Now let’s get one thing straight. The bonus bagging product which I reviewed on this site is not betting system. It is a betting service that follows an exact formula to extract money from bookmakers using bonus funds. I can vouch that it is risk-free and that following the instructions will guarantee a profit.

On the other hand, I would find difficulty in claiming a sports betting system is risk-free. They are not. Since you are not betting on all outcomes then they cannot be. When we talk about a betting system we are talking about placing bets and gambling on the basis of a strategy. We all hope that betting systems are not based around whims and streaks but rather created by experts with access to extremely intricate knowledge in their field. The reality is however that even the so-called experts get it wrong.

Sport is unpredictable and bookmakers exist to take our money.

There’s a reason that the “best betting systems” can demonstrate exceptional results. That reason is selective data. Like in many walks of life, we only hear about the success stories and rarely hear about the negatives. When a friend of mine used to work in a local bookmakers he got to meet a variety of in-the-know gentlemen. I lost count of the amount of times I was told that he had won some money thanks to a hot tip from one of these aforementioned folk. That’s brilliant you might be thinking? Right. But the reality is that I was only got to hear about the glory days. Good news spreads a lot faster than the bad in the gambling world. To every successful pick there were probably 5 or 6 bad ones. I’m 100% sure that said friend has financed the bookmakers coffers far more than the bookmaker has delivered him wins.

People are always keen to relay their betting success stories. It vindicates their decision to gamble. The losses are swept under the carpet. People advertising sports betting systems are no exception.

Throughout this site it is my intention to study closely the ‘best sports betting systems’ and identify their strengths and weaknesses. My mind is open to discovering that lives up to its hype but I am always a little sceptical when reading long sales pages telling me how I’m going to need a new wheel barrow to carry my wads of cash around in.

There is a lot of information on this site with regard to intelligent arbitrage betting (and matched betting) which are methods I can vouch for as being capable of producing guaranteed results. For everything else I’ll need a fair bit of convincing but rest assured when/if I find something I’ll be the first to let you know!

Germany Vs. Ghana: Prediction, Preview And Betting Odds [World Cup 2014 Group G]

In a scintillating opening display, Germany already provided a heavy suggestion that the so-called “Group of Death” will, for them, have ample life. A 4-0 destruction of Portugal that threatened to cross the line into humiliation for the team ranked as the second best in one of the World Cup’s toughest groups on paper made light of the expected challenge. On Saturday Joachim Low’s team will take on Ghana looking to put a place in the Round of 16 already within touching distance.

Their debut performance made a powerful statement. After a buildup to the World Cup blighted by injuries and fitness doubts, together with scrutiny over Low’s decision to take just one orthodox striker, the fading expectations prior to arrival in Brazil have been revived. It was perhaps the most complete attacking performance of the World Cup so far; one that befuddled Portugal and led to Pepe losing his cool in the Salvador heat and only helping to make Germany’s win all the more routine.

Thomas Muller grabbed the headlines with a hat-trick as the Bayern Munich man picked up exactly where he left off in South Africa four years ago. It was his all-round performance, though, that deserves the attention. Rarely having played as an out-an-out striker, yet with the physical capabilities to do so, Muller brought movement and unpredictability to the role which never allowed Portugal’s defenders to settle. Muller was complimented delightfully by Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze, and the fluidity of the trio was a joy to behold. Behind them, a midfield trio of Sami Khedira, Philipp Lahm and Toni Kroos had a little of everything.

It went as well for Low as he could possibly have dreamed. The same can most definitely not be said for Ghana coach James Kwesi Appiah. Ghana’s opening match against the United States was not only billed as a chance for American revenge after the African side’s victories over them in the last two World Cup, but also as close to a make-or-break game for both teams given the quality of opposition to come.

Clint Dempsey’s goal after 30 seconds immediately took Ghana out of their counter-attacking comfort zone. Against a U.S. performance that was strong-willed but far from convincing, it took Ghana until eight minutes from the end to get level through Andre Ayew. Then with victory in their sights, it was instead defeat that they realized by sloppily allowing John Brooks to head in a late corner.

Appiah had caused some surprise with his team selection that saw Michael Essien and Kevin-Prince Boateng start on the bench. It was arguably a decision that back-fired. Both midfielders came on in the second-half and made positive contributions, and if Essien recovers from a toe injury, they could well start in Fortaleza on Saturday. One of those likely to drop out is Jordan Ayew. The Marseille man was selected following a hat-trick in Ghana’s final warm-up game against South Korea but never looked capable of replicating that form against the U.S.

If Ghana are to keep their hopes of World Cup progress alive against Germany, then it is vital that they capitalize on their strengths out wide. The pace of Christian Atsu, who gave a more impressive performance on the right against the U.S., and Andre Ayew is certainly capable of giving Germany problems.

Before they took charge, Germany showed a vulnerability at the back that, had Cristiano Ronaldo been fully fit and Hugo Almeida simply been a more accomplished striker, Portugal could well have capitalized upon. The issues for Germany particularly come down the right flank. There Mesut Ozil is far from diligent at getting back defensively, while at right-back Jerome Boateng is playing out of position and is not the most secure of defenders regardless, while Per Mertesacker, the right-sided of the two center-backs, can be caught out for pace. That Germany defense could get a reshuffle against Ghana, with Mats Hummels still struggling with a thigh problem and the inexperienced Shkodran Mustafi a candidate to come in.

Prediction: Expect a match where Germany dominate possession and Ghana adopt their more familiar counter-attacking style. At their best, Ghana can certainly cause Germany problems on the break and there could be a goal in store for them. But Ghana showed vulnerability at the back against the U.S. and their defense is unlikely to stand up to repeated examination by a Germany side excellent going forward.

Germany 3-1 Ghana

Liverpool: Premier League near-miss offers hope for the future

It was not until the players and staff embarked upon their lap of appreciation – excited children and partners in tow, smiles and embraces all round, applause from every corner of a stadium still full of their fans – that it really hit home how far Liverpool have come.

They had every reason to be miserable and downcast; a first league title in 24 years slipping so painfully from their grasp in the final two weeks of the campaign, and confirmed when a final-day victory over Newcastle was rendered irrelevant by Manchester City beating West Ham.

As City were crowned champions for the second time in three seasons to scenes of wild celebration, everyone connected with Liverpool must have wondered what might have been.

But if so, they did a good job of hiding it and any gloom was conspicuous by its absence as an overwhelming sense of pride engulfed this famous old ground, the reality dawning that the Reds have returned to the top table of English football and look well equipped to stay there.

Just 12 months ago they were seventh, 28 points behind champions Manchester United, having finished eighth, sixth and seventh in the preceding three years.

Fast forward to Sunday and they were just two points adrift of a team whose level of talent and wealth is greater than almost any other in global sport.

Not since 1989 had Liverpool entered the final day vying to win the league (they triumphed in 1990 with games to spare), and before kick-off one fan told me she was on the verge of tears – tears of joy her side were in contention, that they got there with an attacking style befitting of the club’s tradition, and had done so 25 years on from the Hillsborough disaster.

In Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge they have the division’s top two scorers. Suarez refused the move he wanted last summer, later signing a new contract and recently collecting both the Professional Footballers’ Association and Football Writers’ Association player of the year awards.

Captain Steven Gerrard has found a new lease of life at 33, and his midfield partner Jordan Henderson is one of the top flight’s most improved performers, while Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho have regularly enthralled with their combination of speed and trickery.

The positive statistics are many and varied, but one of the most pertinent is that in 2011-12, the season before Brendan Rodgers took over as manager, Liverpool scored just 47 league goals. This term they netted 101, hitting three figures for the first time since 1895-96.

It was a backdrop that made for another ebullient pre-match atmosphere, thousands lining Anfield Road to welcome the team bus – red flags, scarves and flares wherever you looked – before a spine-tingling rendition of You’ll Never Walk Alone that continued beyond kick-off.

Few were backing West Ham to upset City at Etihad Stadium, which Liverpool needed alongside three points of their own, but the fans have proudly displayed a banner reading “Make Us Dream” and they were not about to stop believing the unlikely could become a reality.

The knowledge that a Premier League trophy and set of winners medals were on site merely added to the buzz.

Liverpool seemed gripped by nerves throughout the first half, though, and most of the optimism was crushed when Martin Skrtel put through his own net and news of City taking the lead arrived.

Still the locals willed their team forward, but with every careless mistake came more frustration from the stands and although Liverpool showed spirit to complete a comeback, City had extended their lead and were preparing to get their hands on the silverware.

The final whistle marked a 16th win in 19 home league games and was greeted with deserving applause, yet this was a performance that highlighted the issue that has probably cost Liverpool the glory.

Their defensive record was only the eighth best in the table, just twice in the Premier League era have they conceded more goals in a season and no other team made more errors leading to attempts and goals.

They conceded 29 goals to teams in the bottom half (only Fulham and Cardiff let in more), took six points from 18 against top-four opposition, goalkeeper Simon Mignolet made more errors leading to goals than any other player, and Skrtel scored the most own goals.

Rodgers acknowledged before and after the Newcastle game that Liverpool needed to improve their defensive “concentration” and “organisation”, with the assertion that “sometimes you can’t teach people what they don’t have” surely an indicator he will look to strengthen this area in the coming months. Cardiff City centre-back Steven Caulker is among those already linked with the Reds.

For all the promise of a squad containing an exciting blend of youth and experience, recruitment will be key for a manager who only gave league starts to 20 players during the campaign.

Liverpool contested just 43 games in all competitions (Manchester City and Chelsea played 57, Arsenal 54 with the FA Cup final to come and Manchester United 53) and their return to Champions League football for the first time since 2009 is sure to present an added challenge, in terms of quality and quantity.

Rodgers conceded he has “a really thin squad” and needs players able to “physically cope” with the “arduous” schedule.

The 41-year-old said Liverpool “will definitely strengthen” but added there will be no compromise on the style of play: “That will only be enhanced and improved.”

He promised to tackle the continent’s elite club competition “without fear”, but it will be a completely new experience for the Northern Irishman and many of his players.

One man Rodgers will be desperate to count on is Suarez – rumoured to be an ongoing target for Real Madrid – and, as the Uruguayan left the field with his wife, children and a golden boot, he looked happy enough.

Rodgers went on to talk about the “total restoration of the club” he is helping oversee, and the challenge of confounding those who were “quite rightly sceptical at the start”, when a 39-year-old was appointed to one of the more high-profile jobs in British football.

As I walked out through the Shankly Gates, a steward said “the good times are coming back”, but the real test lies ahead, because expectations will now shift dramatically, and Liverpool must satisfy them if they are to re-establish themselves as a European superpower.

This was the day one dream died, but the Reds will hope another is about to be born.

Steven Gerrard: Liverpool can win Premier League title next year

Captain Steven Gerrard believes runners-up Liverpool will win the Premier League title before he retires.

The Reds challenged until the final day of this season but, despite a 2-1 win over Newcastle, finished two points behind champions Manchester City.

“This experience is going to take us to the title,” Gerrard, 33, told LFC TV. “Whether it is next year or the year after, it will happen pretty soon.

“I’ve only got a couple of years left but I still believe I can get there.”

Gerrard has captained Liverpool to success in the Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup, but the Premier League remains beyond his grasp.

“I thought my days of title races had gone but, having played with this group of players this year, the dream is back,” he said.

“I never give up fighting. I’m really confident and believe the title is not too far away.

“We’ve proved this season that we’re capable of mixing it with the best, and we want to go one better next year.”

Liverpool, who had not finished higher than sixth in their previous four seasons, started the final day trailing City by two points with a far inferior goal difference, meaning they needed to beat Newcastle and hope the leaders lost at home to the Hammers.

But City’s 2-0 victory rendered Liverpool’s defeat of Newcastle academic in terms of the title, although the three points ensured they finished second ahead of Chelsea.

“If someone had said to me that we would go into the last game with a slim chance of winning the league, I’d have taken that at the start of the season,” said Gerrard. “But as a footballer you always want more.

“We have been unlucky. We gave it a great shot, but we fell a little bit short.”

Former Liverpool captain Alan Hansen, who lifted the club’s last top-flight title in 1990, said the season must be regarded as a failure given that the Reds had the title in their own hands with four games remaining.

Hansen told Match of the Day: “It’s a failure, an absolute failure. You get into that position with four games to go, if you had gone into that dressing room today they would not have been celebrating anything. I think it will be massive disappointment.

“If you are at the start of the season, Liverpool would have bitten your hand off to finish second and be in the Champions League, but with the title in your own hands, it’s failure.”

Gerrard, who will captain England at the World Cup in Brazil this summer, wants the Reds to improve their squad in the summer.

“If we add to this team and squad in the right areas, we are capable of challenging,” he added. “Things have changed here – the supporters know that and the players know that.”

A 3-2 victory over Manchester City in April put Liverpool in control of the title race but a 2-0 defeat by Chelsea and 3-3 draw at Crystal Palace handed the initiative back to Manuel Pellegrini’s men.

Manager Brendan Rodgers rejected the notion Liverpool choked in the home straight, and preferred to praise an “incredible achievement.”

“I don’t think anyone can say we failed to cope with the pressure,” he said. “In the last 14 games of the season we won 12, and drew one so the players have shown an incredible consistency and quality to finish second behind Man City.

“It’s been wonderful to see the supporters, and the power of the club and the institution that is Liverpool. We made them dream and that is our job.

“The great thing is that we will improve. We will get better next season and we will be ready to fight again. But now we have the belief.”

Statistics is Sports Betting

We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. Since we are on the awkward subject of math, let us say a couple of things about statistics and odds.

There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting. They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance. As they say:

The ball spins without knowing any laws or statistics!

Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. Nevertheless, we must not forget that there are a large number of applications and innumerable excel sheets dealing with statistics in sports betting; a fact that, if no other, demonstrates that a great percentage of players are trying to beat the odds through the analysis of teams’ and players’ statistics. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it.

Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event. At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come.

Yet you might say: well Jim, you already answered that question yourself. Statistics just sell to a whole lot of people who think they may become winners following statistical models. They are giving them the necessary hope to keep them into the game, to keep them interested.

This is indeed an explanation that perhaps I should write about in the future. Having said that, I must also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games. Moreover, in several movies statistics are shown as the Holy Grail of betting. What the heck, a part of these allegations must be true.

Nevertheless, statistics in sports betting are applied extensively when building or improving a particular betting system. Now, I am not talking about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches. I’m referring to the statistical analysis of the system’s actual performance, such as the drawdown.

By studying the reliability of the system, based on statistical aggregates, we are confident for the betting system’s future performance, while confirming the proper functioning of our system. A system that makes 5 points out of a sample of 100 bets may be satisfactory. Yet, I would rather have a system that makes 250 points tested on a sample of 10,000 games! And that is where mathematics and statistics make a huge difference in sports betting.

Mathematics in Sports Betting

Some mistakenly believe that mathematics and statistics are insignificant in sports betting. The truth is that just like in casino games, the effectiveness of a sports betting system to generate profits depends strictly on mathematics.

Even when there is no obvious system, as if a player bets blindly, the bettor may inadvertently wager using math correctly! Even in the case when betting decisions are influenced by the news, predictions and rumors, a player’s profitability is directly depended on math.

On the other hand, statistics may be applied when we create a system, but are mainly used in the study of the system’s results, as in testing the credibility of the followed methods.
Mathematics in sports betting: Just a simple equation

The truth is that for most people betting on sports is more like a hobby – as it should be.

However, if sports bettors spent some time on making the following very simple calculations, it would be possible to minimize the losses from betting and, why not, stop being an expensive hobby.

There is no doubt most players lose a lot of money betting, either online or offline. The majority of players do not record the results of their bets. In other words, they do not systematically track what comes in and what goes out on their betting account each month. This is one of the 10 reasons we lose in sports betting.

Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation.

Consider the average of odds you bet on, let us say 2.00. Now think how often your betting tips win. Suppose the answer is 45 percent. This means that for every 100 bets, you win 45 bets corresponding to 45 units profit (since you are betting on 2.00 average odds). At the same time, you lose 55 bets, which translate to a loss of 55 units.

If you wager €10 per bet on average (in this case one unit equals €10), after 100 bets you would make €450 on your successful predictions and lose €550 on the rest. So you will find yourself to be losing a total of €100. If you bet 100 times each month (about 3 matches on average per day), sports betting costs you about €1,200 every year; more than a regular monthly salary for most people.

The above example can easily be represented by the general equation Y= X*Z, where X is the average odds of betting and Z is the success rate of predictions. If the product (Y) is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital.

These are actually the only math to have in mind – for the bettors who want to bet merely for the enjoyment. The result (Y) in that mathematical equation distinguishes players between winners and losers and betting systems between profitable and money-losing.

Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2.00. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good. However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly.
How do I win in sports betting? The answer lies on the equation!

We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1. The answer of course lies on X and Z.

In the example above, we saw that X equals to 2.00 and Z to 0.45 (45 percent). Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. This means we should choose higher odds than 2.00 or increase the success rate of our forecasts.

So there are two solutions:

to stick to the same method of picking our bets looking, however, for better odds; or
to improve our betting system’s winning probability.

In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.

You can read more about the relationship between the odds and probability in the article about how we select the right bets online.

Liverpool to beat Aston Villa with at least two goals

Liverpool welcomes Aston Villa in a match of the 22nd round of the English Premier League. Two of the most glorious English clubs are with absolutely different goals this season. The hosts from Liverpool are battling for the top four places, which gives a spot in the Champions League next year. The ambitions of the club’s fans are even for an involvement in the fight for the first place. Contrary to this, the main ambition for Aston Villa is to keep theirs place among the elite of the English football.

Currently Aston Villa is with 23 points, while the first team in the relegation zone Cardiff has 18. The difference of five points is hardly reassuring anybody in Birmingham especially given the visits of Liverpool and Everton in the next three rounds.

Liverpool is on the fourth place in the current standings with 6 points behind the leaders from Arsenal and have all chances after a series of several successful matches to get even ahead in the standings.

Liverpool’s striker Luis Suarez’s is the player that all are talking about in England. It is hardly to find someone in England who believes that someone else will be the top scorer at the end of the season. There is also hardly to find someone in England who sincerely believes that Aston Villa’s defense will be able to stop Suarez and the only unclear is the number of goals he would score in the net of Brad Guzan.

This can be seen in the proposals of the bookmakers for the match between Liverpool and Aston Villa. The highest rate for a home win is offered by William Hill – 1.25, while bet365 and bet-at-home offer only 1.2. The draw is estimated at 6 by William Hill, while bet365 gives 6.5 and 7 – bet-at-home. Villa’s chances to walk away with а victory at Anfield are around 12.

Even more interesting are the betting options on the Asian Handicap market. There the even rates are for a win for Liverpool with a handicap of -2. Something that sounds like a completely justified bet. The chances for Liverpool’s win by at least 2 goals is just around 50%, making the bet justified.

Betting on winter sports – Part Two

A few days ago we talked about all betting proposals offered by bet365 on Alpine skiing races. However, the other winter sports also are very interesting for the sport bettors worldwide and therefore in this article we will pay more attention on the proposals of the bookmaker for cross-country skiing and biathlon.

The betting proposals of bet365 for both sports are very similar, with the main betting option for the winner in the given race. Bet365 generally offers a list with the players with the greatest chances to win the race and the respective odds, but there is also an additional option which will help you to get individual odds if you consider that the winner could be a skier who is not on the main list. Another possible bet offered by bet365 is about whether a player will be able to finish among the top three or not. Here the principle of betting is the same as this one for betting for the winner on the race.

Except bets on the winner and for the first three spots in the cross-country skiing and biathlon you can bet on the margin by which the winner will win the race. In this bet the betting opportunities differ, as they depend mostly on the length of the track and the kind of discipline you are getting to bet on.

One of the most popular bets offered by bet365 to their customers is the so-called match-ups. Just as with the proposals for betting on Alpine skiing this betting option applies for biathlon and cross-country skiing. The bookmaker offers couples of skiers and the bettor is required to predict which of the two skiers will finish ahead in the final standings.

It’s a pretty interesting betting option and the good news is that bet365 offers a very low margin for this type of bets, which makes it quite attractive for the bettors around the world.

In its betting proposals for winter sports bet365 proves that their reputation as one of the best bookmakers in the world is well deserved. Their proposals and odds are more than excellent and help bettors to watch the ski racing starts with much more interest than usual.

Betting on winter sports

Winter sports are very interesting to watch, but also are very exciting for betting. As a self-respecting bookmaker bet365 makes the best possible to offer to its customers as many betting options as possible for every competition from the winter sports calendar.

Of course, the most attention is given to the alpine skiing, as the bookmaker covers all the races from the World Cup and even offers many different bets on each race. Thus, except for the winner in every race with bet365, every bettor can also bet on whether a skier will get to the podium and who will be the winner after the first leg of the race.

Another interesting possibility for betting is what will be the winning margin, with which the race will be won from one of the skiers. Bet365 provides several possibilities for this bet – from 0 to 19 hundredths of a second, from 20 to 39 hundredths of a second, from 40 to 59 hundredths of a second, from 60 to 79 hundredths of a second and more than 80 hundredths of a second. However, it is important to note that in this type of betting bet365 offers a very large margin – it is bigger than 16%, which makes it not very attractive for betting.

However, bet365 offers another interesting option to bet where the margin is much lower – around 7%. It’s a bet for which one of the proposed by the bookmaker two skiers would be higher in the final standing. If both skiers don’t finish the race in the same leg, the bet would be canceled. However, if one of the players is eliminated in the first leg, while the other finishes it, then the winner is this skier who has completed the leg.

Of course, at any time during the season bet365 offers odds for the winner in the overall World Cup standings for men and women. A bet can be made for every skier and if the desired name is not in the proposed by bet365 list then the bettor makes a specific request for the needed name and he gets an individual coefficient.

West Ham vs Newcastle – Betting prediction

If you look at the standings in the English Premier League you will clearly see that the teams are divided into three major groups. The first one of seven teams is consisted of the top teams, which are followed by Newcastle and Southampton who occupy the middle in the table and are followed by another group of eleven teams that are fighting for survival among the best English teams.

The season for Newcastle increasingly looks like finished as the team will hardly be able to progress forward, but it would be also relatively difficult to be involved in the battle for survival. No matter how strange it is to say something like that after only 21 games played, Newcastle’s manager Alan Pardew may begin to think about some strengthening of the team for the next season.

The situation is not the same for West Ham’s manager Sam Allardyce who is definitely experiencing difficult times this year. The team is not in the relegation zone only because of the goal difference and the football they play looks too outdated by today’s standards in the Premier League.

The only good news that can be heard from the team is about the expected return of Andy Carroll after a long absence due to injury. Something that will reinforce the “Hammers” as Carroll is the best possible striker for the style that Sam Allardyce uses anywhere he goes – tough football, with very high balls and a lone striker at the top.

According to the bookmakers’ odds the guests have more chances to win this match. The offered by bet365 odds for 1X2 are 3, 3.4 and 2.3. Those of William Hill are 2.8, 3.5 and 2.4. bet-at-home offers for the match between West Ham and Newcastle odds for a home win of 2.95, 3.35 for a draw, 2.3 for Newcastle’s win.

The last two matches between these two ended with scoreless draws and given the series that both clubs have fallen in (Newcastle are with three consecutive losses, while the hosts from West Ham have lost eight of their last ten league matches), I’m sure they would be more than happy not to lose this match. That’s why my bet for this match will be for a draw with the highest odds proposed by William Hill – 3.5.